Law enforcement agencies and multiple government intelligence bodies have conducted surveys regarding the upcoming 13th National Parliamentary Election. These surveys were carried out primarily to assess the law and order situation and to formulate appropriate security plans. However, according to a report by one intelligence agency, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is currently ahead.
According to the report, BNP is significantly leading. Although BNP’s main competition is with Jamaat-e-Islami, the report also mentions that rebel (independent) candidates may win in several constituencies.
Based on intelligence findings:
• In Panchagarh-1, BNP candidate Barrister Naushad Zamir is likely to win.
• In Panchagarh-2, BNP candidate Farhad Hossain Azad is expected to win, though he will face tough competition from Jamaat candidate Safiul Alam.
• In Thakurgaon-1, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir is likely to win.
• In Thakurgaon-2, Jamaat candidate Abdul Hakim has strong winning prospects.
• In Thakurgaon-3, a three-way contest among BNP, Jatiya Party, and Jamaat may ultimately result in victory for BNP-backed candidate Zahidur Rahman Zahid.
Among Dinajpur’s six seats, BNP is expected to win four. Jamaat is likely ahead in Dinajpur-4, while in Dinajpur-5, independent (BNP rebel) candidate A.K.M. Kamruzzaman may win.
In Nilphamari’s four seats, BNP and Jamaat are expected to secure one seat each, with another seat witnessing a close fight between them and the remaining one seeing a three-way contest among BNP, Jamaat, and Jatiya Party.
In Lalmonirhat’s three seats, BNP may win two, while one will see tight competition between BNP and Jamaat.
In Rangpur’s six seats, BNP may win three, Jamaat two, and Jatiya Party one.
In Kurigram’s four seats, BNP is likely to win three. The remaining seat (Kurigram-1) may witness a four-way contest among BNP, Jatiya Party, Jamaat, and Islami Andolon (Hand Fan symbol).
In Gaibandha’s five seats, BNP and Jamaat may secure two seats each, while one seat could go to a BNP rebel candidate.
In Joypurhat’s two seats, one will see intense competition between BNP and Jamaat, and in the other, BNP is more likely to win.
In Bogura’s seven seats, BNP may win six, while Bogura-3 will see a tight contest between BNP and Jamaat.
In Chapainawabganj’s three seats, BNP is likely to win one, while the other two will see close BNP–Jamaat fights.
In Naogaon’s six seats, BNP may win four, with the remaining two seeing intense BNP–Jamaat competition. A similar scenario is projected for Rajshahi’s six seats.
In Natore’s four seats, one each may go to Jamaat, BNP, and an independent candidate, while the remaining seat will see a fierce contest between BNP and an independent candidate.
In Sirajganj’s six seats, BNP has better prospects in four, while the remaining two will witness close BNP–Jamaat contests.
In Pabna’s five seats, BNP and Jamaat may win two each, and one seat may see a contest between BNP’s official and rebel candidates.
In Meherpur, one seat may go to BNP and one to Jamaat.
In Kushtia, BNP is nearly certain to win two seats, while the remaining two will see intense BNP–Jamaat competition.
In Chuadanga’s two seats, BNP is likely to win both.
In Jhenaidah’s four seats, BNP may win two, Jamaat one, and the remaining one may go to either a BNP official or rebel candidate.
In Jashore’s six seats, Jamaat may win three and BNP one, while two seats may see close BNP–Jamaat contests.
In Magura’s two seats, BNP is likely to win both.
In Narail, one seat may go to BNP and the other to Jamaat.
In Bagerhat’s four seats, BNP may win two, while the remaining two will see intense BNP–Jamaat contests.
In Khulna’s six seats, BNP is ahead in four, while two will witness tight BNP–Jamaat competition.
In Satkhira’s four seats, Jamaat may win two, BNP one, and the remaining one may go to either party.
In Barguna, one seat may go to BNP and the other to either BNP or Jamaat.
In Patuakhali’s four seats, BNP may win two, one may go to either BNP or Jamaat, and one to a BNP rebel.
In Bhola’s four seats, BNP may win three, while the remaining one may go to a BNP-backed or Jamaat-backed candidate.
In Barishal’s six and Jhalokathi’s two seats, BNP is likely to win all.
In Pirojpur’s three seats, one may go to Jamaat, one to BNP, and the other to a BNP-backed or Islami Andolon candidate.
In Tangail’s eight seats, BNP may win five, while three could go to independent candidates, including BNP rebels and former minister Abdul Latif Siddique.
In Jamalpur’s five seats, BNP candidates are likely to win all.
In Sherpur’s two seats, one may go to BNP and the other to either BNP or a BNP rebel.
In Mymensingh’s eleven seats, four are almost certain for BNP, while the others may go to BNP rebels or Jamaat.
In Netrokona’s four seats, BNP may win all.
In Kishoreganj’s six seats, BNP may win four, with the others going to BNP rebels or BNP-affiliated candidates.
In Manikganj’s two seats, BNP is likely to win both, though one may go to a rebel.
In Munshiganj’s three seats, BNP may win two and a BNP rebel one.
In Dhaka’s 20 seats, BNP may win 15. Jamaat and BNP rebels may win one each, while the remaining seats will see close contests involving BNP, Jamaat, and Khelafat Majlish.
In Gazipur and Narsingdi (five seats each), BNP is likely to win all.
In Narayanganj’s five seats, BNP may win three; one may go to BNP or a rebel, and one will see a three-way contest.
In Rajbari’s two seats, BNP is likely to win both.
In Faridpur’s four seats, three may go to BNP-backed candidates, and one to either BNP or Jamaat.
In Gopalganj’s three seats, BNP may win one, while the remaining two will see three-way contests.
In Madaripur’s three seats, one may go to BNP and two to either BNP or its rebel candidates.
In Shariatpur’s three seats, BNP may win two, and one may go to either BNP or Jamaat.
In Sunamganj’s five seats, BNP may win three, Jamaat one, and one may go to BNP or a rebel.
In Sylhet’s six seats, BNP may win four, while two may go to Jamaat or BNP rebels.
In Moulvibazar’s four seats, BNP may win two, with tough competition in the others.
In Habiganj’s four seats, BNP has strong prospects in most.
In Chattogram Division overall, BNP may secure around 35 seats, Jamaat three, while the remaining seats will be decided through contests among BNP, Jamaat, rebels, and other candidates.
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